Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
